But given the apparently large impact so far on Hong Kong,how can this be? As our chart shows,for the world as a whole there is a marked discrepancy between the incidence of Sars and the size of the country"s GDP. Sars cases have been heavily concentrated in China and Hong Kong.
But these two together account for less than 5 per cent of world GDP. Canada is the only other large economy to have a significant share of Sars cases,and that is only 2.2 percent,more or less equal to its share of world GDP. But the United States,which accounts for about a third of world GDP,has reported only about 1 per cent of all Sars cases. The UK"s share of world Sars cases is about 0.1 percent. Countries which together account for more than 50 percent of world output have only 1 percent of all Sars infections.
Moreover,so far at least,even in the most affected countries Sars has not disrupted the supply capacity of the economy. It has not wiped out large numbers of workers or prevented large parts of the economy from functioning. Rather,its effects have been concentrated on discouraging demand.
Disasters which affect aggregate demand are rarely as large in their overall effects as they seem at the time. As long as their overall spending power is not impaired,there is scope for people to switch their spending to other areas. Holidays not taken in Hong Kong and Singapore will probably be switched to other locations,perhaps in Europe or the US.
And expenditure may be postponed,rather than lost altogether. Retail sales and tourist visits lost in Hong Kong will rebound strongly once Sars has abated. Interestingly,there are plans to reschedule the Rolling Stones tour,and Santana"s Asian tour has already been rescheduled for November. Furthermore,Hong Kong announced a package of measures to combat the effects of Sars which totals almost 1 percent of GDP.
Back to basics
Because they are tangible and readily filmable,noneconomic events tend to be exaggerated in the media as possible causes of major economic effects. Yet their significance is usually minor compared to the apparently staid,and not so easily filmable,economic non-events such as the Bank of England"s failure to cut interest rates last week or the ECB"s continued blindness to the acute weakness of the euro zone economy.
The world economy may well turn out to be weak this year but if it does it will not be because of Sars but rather because of the host of economic and financial problems which beset it.
(3)The Daily Telegraph:money,July 6,2003 (Filed:July 6,2003). “China cracks the quality barrier”by Damian Reece.
China cracks the quality barrier
As Sino-brands raise their game and set their sights
on overseas markets,Damian Reece assesses the
threat to Western companies
Next time you buy a fridge,why not check out a Haier? Or what about replacing your Compaq personal computer with a Legend?
Instead of drinking a pint of the usual,why not try a bottle of Yanjiing. After all,you might need a stiff drink before splashing out on that Erdos cashmere cardigan for your loved one"s birthday.
What,you might ask,are we blathering about? Well,all these consumer brands have one thing in common (apart from being unfamiliar to most of us). They are all Chinese. In fact these are just a few of theSino-brands that have made it big in China and which experts now claim are set to conquer the Western world.
A new book,Brand Warriors China,highlights these leading Chinese brands. It says it is time for European and US companies to reassess what "Made in China" means. Chinese companies are no longer content to simply manufacture at astonishingly low cost for large overseas companies,who stamp their own labels on the finished goods.
At breathtaking speed,there is an economic transformation taking place,which involves the development by the Chinese of their own "value added" brand names for consumption at home and abroad.
“There is a threat to British companies,”says Fiona Gilmour,the co-author of Brand Warriors China,“because of China"s potential to undercut Western prices. A Chinese-made product that in the past you might have rejected even though it was cheap will be accepted in future because of its increasing quality.”