“One summer we were on a camping trip in the TouquinValley of the Canadian Rockies. One night we were campingseven thousand feet above sea level， when a storm threatenedto tear our tents to shreds. The tents were tied with guy ropesto a wooden platform. The outer tent shook and trembled andscreamed and shrieked in the wind. I expected every minute tosee our tent torn loose and hurled through the sky. I was terrified！
But my husband kept saying： ‘Look， my dear， we are travellingwith Brewster’s guides. Brewster’s know what they are doing.
They have been pitching tents in these mountains for sixty years.
This tent has been here for many seasons. It hasn’t blown downyet and， by the law of averages， it won’t blow away tonight； andeven if it does， we can take shelter in another tent. So relax.... Idid； and I slept soundly the balance of the night.
“A few years ago an infantile-paralysis epidemic sweptover our part of California. In the old days， I would have beenhysterical. But my husband persuaded me to act calmly. Wetook all the precautions we could； we kept our children awayfrom crowds， away from school and the movies. By consulting the Board of Health， we found out that even during the worstinfantile-paralysis epidemic that California had ever known up tothat time， only 1，835 children had been stricken in the entire stateof California. And that the usual number was around two hundredor three hundred. Tragic as those figures are， we neverthelessfelt that， according to the law of averages， the chances of any onechild being stricken were remote.
“‘By the law of averages， it won’t happen.’ that phrase hasdestroyed ninety per cent of my worries； and it has made the pasttwenty years of my life beautiful and peaceful beyond my highestexpectations.” As I look back across the decades， I can see thatis where most of my worries came from also. Jim Grant told methat that had been his experience， too. He owns the James A.
Grant Distributing Company， 204 Franklin Street， New York City.
He orders from ten to fifteen car-loads of Florida oranges andgrapefruit at a time. He told me that he used to torture himselfwith such thoughts as：
What if there’s a train wreck？ What if my fruit is strewn allover the countryside？ What if a bridge collapses as my cars aregoing across it？ Of course， the fruit was insured； but he fearedthat if he didn’t deliver his fruit on time， he might risk the loss ofhis market. He worried so much that he feared he had stomachulcers and went to a doctor. The doctor told him there wasnothing wrong with him except jumpy nerves.
“I saw the light then，” he said， “and began to ask myselfquestions. I said to myself： ‘Look here， Jim Grant， how many fruitcars have you handled over the years？’ The answer was： ‘Abouttwenty-five thousand.’ Then I asked myself： ‘How many of thosecars were ever wrecked？’ The answer was： ‘Oh—maybe five.’ ThenI said to myself： ‘Only five-out of twenty-five thousand？ Do you know what that means？ A ratio of five thousand to one！ In otherwords， by the law of averages， based on experience， the chancesare five thousand to one against one of your cars ever beingwrecked. So what are you worried about？’
“Then I said to myself： ‘Well， a bridge may collapse！’ thenI asked myself： ‘How many cars have you actually lost from abridge collapsing？’ the answer was—‘None.’ then I said to myself：