书城外语那些来自华尔街的赚钱经
6559500000011

第11章 To Be a Super Financer (2)

Lynda Damario,regional director of Albemarle & Bond said: “There are increasing numbers of people from all walks of life who are finding themselves in a situation where the banks are unable to help so our business is growing.”

That reluctance by banks to lend has helped earn the UK’s biggest pawnbroker a 47 percent rise in profits.

At a time when the price of gold is rising in value it is probably unsurprising that sales of second hand jewellery accounted for 75 percent of the firm’s total sales.

Harvey & Thompson,one of Britain’s biggest pawnbrokers has seen business increase by 11 percent in recent months and said this is all due to gold—and people coming in to sell their jewellery—not from people simply pawning items.

A spokeswoman for H&T,said that consumers are more aware of the idea of selling their possessions because of the popularity of online auctions. “It’s the eBay effect. People are more aware now that they can raise cash by selling things they don’t need.”

Pawnbrokers give customers money in return for an object which is held as security until the customer pays off the loan plus any interest charges. No credit checks are needed and,once the item is valued and a rate of interest agreed,the customer can leave with the money. Jewellery and watches are“pledged”most often.

According to the National Pawnbrokers Association,around 88 percent of pledged goods are redeemed. But what if the worst happens and you are unable to pay for the item at the end of the loan period?

You can usually extend the length of time of borrowing. If you cannot do this,as a last resort,the pledge will get sold off,but it is generally not in the pawnbroker’s interest to do so,particularly as many of them thrive on repeat customers.

经济不景气的时候,典当业却普遍被看好,因为它提供的金价和低息贷款在信贷紧缩的时候着实诱人。

Albemarle & Bond典当公司的地区经理林达·达马里奥说,“越来越多的各行各业的人陷入困境,银行帮不了他们,于是我们的生意就好了很多。”

正是银行的惜贷使得这个英国最大的典当公司的利润增长了47%。

如今黄金价格上扬,典当手里的珠宝不足为奇,这块占到了公司所有销售业务的75%。

另一家英国大型典当公司Harvey & Thompson也表示,近几个月生意量增加了11%。不是简单的物品典当,而是由于金价上涨,人们开始典当手里的珠宝。

H&T的一名发言人说,由于网上拍卖的日益流行,典当被越来越多的人接受。“这就是‘eBay效应’。更多的人认同出售自己的闲置物品来换取现金。”

光顾当铺的人将物件作为抵押典当,当铺给出现金,直到典当人偿还本金和利息(偿还后可赎回抵押)。典当人不需经过信用检查,只需交易双方就典当品价值和利息达成一致,典当人既可换得现金。珠宝和手表是最常见的典当品。

据英国全国典当协会统计,大约88%的典当品都被赎回。但是,如果发生什么不幸,你在典当期内无力赎回抵押品该怎么办呢?

通常你可以延长赎回期。若到期你仍不能偿还,典当行最终将会出售抵押品。但是典当商这么做是不得已而为之的,因为他们特别依赖从回头客身上赚钱。

核心单词

boom [bu:m] n. 激增,暴涨

auction [5CkEFn] n. 拍卖

redeem [ri5di:m] v. 买回;赎回

extend [iks5tend] v. 伸展;扩大;延续

pledge [pledV] n. 抵押品,典当品

财经知识一点通

典当行(pawnbroking)

亦称当铺,是专门发放质押贷款的边缘性金融机构,是以货币借贷为主和商品销售为辅的市场中介组织。

信贷紧缩(credit crunch)

一般来说,信贷紧缩是指经营贷款的金融机构提高贷款标准,以高于市场利率水平的条件发放贷款,甚至不愿发放贷款,从而导致信贷增长下降,信贷资金难以满足社会再生产的合理需求的现象。

翻译行不行

When economic times are tough it is generally thought that the pawnbroking industry booms-after all gold and cheap loans are tempting for credit crunchers.

Pawnbrokers give customers money in return for an object which is held as security until the customer pays off the loan plus any interest charges.

According to the National Pawnbrokers Association,around 88 percent of pledged goods are redeemed.

第一章 The Stock Value Wasn’t Decided by

Economic Conditions

股票价值,该用多长远的目光去看待

The stock market jumped 6% last week on growing hopes of an imminent economic recovery. It has risen 39% from the March lows on similar hopes. Of course,it had previously fallen nearly 60% on fears of a slump.

All these moves have one thing in common: Millions of investors have acted on the belief that shared values are closely related to what will happen in the economy in the next few months and years. But are they right?

Not according to Ben Inker,director of asset allocation at contrarian fund company Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. In a recent and fascinating note,Mr. Inker persuasively argues that the next moves in the economy shouldn’t actually matter too much to investors at all.

Why? Two reasons.

First,because most of the value of shares really depends on the cash they will generate many years,even decades,ahead. The next few years are only a minuscule part of the equation. “Since stocks do not have an expiration date and dividends grow over time,”Mr. Inker argues,“the duration of stocks is extremely long. If we assume that half of the return from stocks in a given year comes from the dividends and half from the growth in dividends,most of the value of stocks comes from cash flows in the distant future.”

How distant? Using Mr. Inker’s hypothesis,it turns out that about 75% of the value of shares is actually based on dividends that will be paid more than eleven years from now. Half the value is based on dividends to be paid after 25 years,and a quarter on those to be paid after about 50 years.

In other words,when you look at the market today,three quarters of its true value is based on what companies will earn and pay out after 2020 and half is based on what they will do after 2034. So really,how much attention should you pay to next quarter’s earnings?

There is a second reason for not paying too much attention to the economy’s next move. No matter what happens next month or next year,sooner or later the economy will probably find its way back onto its long-term path anyway. If we now boom wildly,we’ll pay for it with weaker growth down the line. And if things are bad for a while,eventually they’ll pick up. That can be true even for devastating blows. GMO’s calculations show that by the late 1940s,Mr. Inker writes,the U.S. economy had returned to the long-term growth path“as if the Depression had never happened.”

This sort of analysis is a useful antidote to stock market moods.